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<p><b><span>The Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and External Debt-to-GDP Ratio on Economic Growth in Egypt: A Quarterly Analysis (2012–2022) Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Regression (LASSO)</span></b></p>

Authors: Mohamed Morsy; Mohamed Fathy;

<p><b><span>The Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and External Debt-to-GDP Ratio on Economic Growth in Egypt: A Quarterly Analysis (2012–2022) Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Regression (LASSO)</span></b></p>

Abstract

<p><b><span>Purpose:</span></b><span> This study aims to analyze the impact of the inflation rate, real interest rate, exchange rate, and external debt-to-GDP ratio—considered as independent variables—on the economic growth rate, which serves as the dependent variable in Egypt. The analysis will cover quarterly data collected from the Central Bank of Egypt for the period from Q1 2012/2013 to Q4 2021/2022. By contributing original insights into Egypt's economic dynamics, this research will provide valuable guidance for policymakers to develop strategies that promote sustainable economic growth.</span></p> <p><b><span>Design/Methodology/Approach: </span></b><span>The study used Lasso regression&nbsp; to arrange a regression model by Tibshirani (1996) as an expanded version of OLS regression but with improved prediction accuracy and interpretability through facing the multicollinearity which could be presented in the data in addition to Granger causality test, Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test as most previous empirical literature used OLS and ARDL methods missing multicollinearity test.&nbsp; </span></p> <p><b><span>Findings: </span></b><span>The study’s analysis found significant positive impacts of the inflation rate and real interest rate on the economic growth rate, in addition to significant negative implications of the exchange rate and external debt to GDP ratio on the economic growth rate.&nbsp; </span></p> <p><b><span>Practical implications: </span></b><span>This research offers valuable insights for Egyptian monetary policymakers, indicating that further devaluation of the Egyptian pound could impede economic growth. It also suggests that increasing external debt may be detrimental unless managed in a way that supports GDP growth while maintaining the external debt-to-GDP ratio. Moreover, sustaining current interest rate policies is crucial to maximizing their positive effects on economic growth while monitoring inflation carefully.</span></p>

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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