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When Are Green Value Chains Green? State-Contingent Emissions Effects of Green Global Value Chains

Authors: Paras Aggarwal;

When Are Green Value Chains Green? State-Contingent Emissions Effects of Green Global Value Chains

Abstract

This paper asks a simple but important question: when does integration into green global value chains actually reduce a country's emissions? Using clean manufacturing sectors identified by the International Energy Agency, we build new forward and backward measures of green GVC participation for G20 countries from 2001 to 2022. Using within-country changes and post-2017 Paris Agreement triple-interaction design, we study state-contingent effects of green GVC participation on emissions based on two key factors: renewable energy share and energy intensity. The findings show that green GVC integration is not automatically good for the climate. For forward participation, emissions fall most when renewable energy use is low. As the renewable share rises above 6.5%, this benefit weakens and eventually turns positive. Higher energy intensity also constrains the gains and causes reversal at 4.5 MJ per unit of GDP. Backward participation shows weaker and more asymmetric effects. The Paris Agreement brought a clear regime shift that weakens the energy-intensity constraint and dynamically reconfigures renewable-contingent effects. Overall, green GVCs are not automatically green. Trade-based climate strategies deliver real environmental gains only when supported by progress in renewable energy and energy efficiency.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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