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The Role of Household Uncertainty in U.S. Business Cycles: Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers

Authors: Neil Ware White;

The Role of Household Uncertainty in U.S. Business Cycles: Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers

Abstract

I introduce new measures of household uncertainty from the Michigan Survey of Consumers and new methods of identifying uncertainty and first-moment confidence shocks from qualitative survey data using sign restrictions on impulse responses. Household uncertainty shocks explain almost none of the fluctuations in real activity in the U.S. Moreover, the endogenous response of household uncertainty is unimportant in the transmission of other macroeconomic shocks. I conclude that household uncertainty plays essentially no role in U.S. business cycles. By contrast, I find evidence of larger roles for firm uncertainty and household confidence.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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