We examine whether aggregate earnings contain macroeconomic information content about U.S. recessions. We find that a one-standard-deviation decline in aggregate earnings growth raises the probability of a recession in the subsequent quarter by up to 8.3%. This predictive ability is incremental to conventional recession predictors and is primarily driven by negative earnings growth, consistent with accounting conservatism. The predictive signal is concentrated in cyclically sensitive sectors, whereas earnings from noncyclical sectors exhibit little predictive content. Although aggregate special items growth displays modest short-term predictive power, their contribution diminishes over longer horizons. Overall, our findings highlight that aggregate earnings can capture macroeconomic tail risk and provide useful signals for transitions into recessionary states.