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What Drives Tourism Demand in Jordan? Evidence from Tourism Receipts, Nights, and Arrivals

Authors: Mohammad AbuBaker; Noura Abu Asab;

What Drives Tourism Demand in Jordan? Evidence from Tourism Receipts, Nights, and Arrivals

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of tourism demand in Jordan using quarterly data from 2009Q1 to 2024Q2. Rather than relying on a single proxy, tourism demand is measured through three complementary indicators: tourism receipts growth, tourism nights growth, and tourist arrivals growth, capturing spending, length-of-stay behavior, and visitor volume. Explanatory variables reflect domestic macroeconomic conditions (Jordan's GDP growth), source-market purchasing power (European GDP per capita growth), and price competitiveness (real effective exchange-rate growth), alongside dummy variables for crisis periods and the presence of lowcost carriers. The empirical strategy estimates dynamic OLS specifications with up to four quarterly lags and applies a General-to-Specific (GTS) reduction procedure to obtain parsimonious, diagnostically adequate models. Results show strong persistence in tourism outcomes, with evidence of short-run momentum and periodic correction. Domestic GDP growth is a robust positive driver across models, while source-market income exerts a powerful effect-immediate for receipts and arrivals and more delayed for nights. Competitiveness effects are most visible for tourism nights, indicating that visitors adjust duration of stay more than spending when relative costs change. Crisis periods primarily depress tourism nights, and lowcost carrier availability is associated with higher arrivals growth, consistent with a volumeexpansion channel. These findings imply that policies aimed at increasing arrivals may differ from those needed to raise receipts or extend stays, highlighting the importance of targeted tourism strategy design.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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