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Geopolitical Hybrid Threats

Authors: Metiu, Norbert; Völpel, Martin;

Geopolitical Hybrid Threats

Abstract

Hybrid threats encompass a range of hostile activities aimed at achieving geopolitical objectives, including cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, espionage, economic and political coercion, disinformation, and other forms of hybrid warfare. We construct a Geopolitical Hybrid Threat (GHT) index based on newspaper coverage of these activities. The index surges from the mid-2010s, surpassing the high levels observed during the late Cold War. Using a narrative instrument in a vector autoregression, we find that hybrid threat shocks suppress aggregate demand by raising uncertainty, reducing confidence, and tightening financial conditions, while triggering policy responses in the form of increased defense spending and monetary easing.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Proxy VAR, ddc:330, H56, Textual Analysis, Geopolitical Risk, C43, F51, Hybrid Threats, E32

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Top 10%
Average
Average
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