
Existing literature questions whether mutual fund holdings convey information for predicting stock returns in emerging markets. We argue that this lack of evidence stems from a methodological limitation: conventional value-weighted holding measures are dominated by a few large funds, obscuring the collective signal from numerous smaller, but potentially more informed managers. This scale-induced distortion masks the true breadth of institutional attention. To address this, we propose the Abnormal Fund Holding Count (AFHC), defined as the residual from regressing the log number of funds holding a stock on controls for size, value, and liquidity. Using Chinese mutual fund data from 2005 to 2023, we show that AFHC strongly predicts future returns: a long-short portfolio based on AFHC earns an equal-weighted monthly alpha of 1.13\% (t = 4.21), robust to risk adjustments and controlling related return predictors. Moreover, high-AFHC stocks exhibit subsequent improvements in fundamentals and greater price informativeness, consistent with a price discovery channel. Our findings demonstrate that institutional breadth, rather than aggregate capital weight, better reveals informed trading in developing markets.
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