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Abnormal Fund Holding Count and Stock Returns

Authors: QI Gao; Shen Lin; Xiong Xiong;

Abnormal Fund Holding Count and Stock Returns

Abstract

Existing literature questions whether mutual fund holdings convey information for predicting stock returns in emerging markets. We argue that this lack of evidence stems from a methodological limitation: conventional value-weighted holding measures are dominated by a few large funds, obscuring the collective signal from numerous smaller, but potentially more informed managers. This scale-induced distortion masks the true breadth of institutional attention. To address this, we propose the Abnormal Fund Holding Count (AFHC), defined as the residual from regressing the log number of funds holding a stock on controls for size, value, and liquidity. Using Chinese mutual fund data from 2005 to 2023, we show that AFHC strongly predicts future returns: a long-short portfolio based on AFHC earns an equal-weighted monthly alpha of 1.13\% (t = 4.21), robust to risk adjustments and controlling related return predictors. Moreover, high-AFHC stocks exhibit subsequent improvements in fundamentals and greater price informativeness, consistent with a price discovery channel. Our findings demonstrate that institutional breadth, rather than aggregate capital weight, better reveals informed trading in developing markets.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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