
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.6489778
The Taiwan Question: From Strategic Silence to Strategic Clarity argues that Philippine neutrality in a Taiwan contingency is not possible—geography makes involvement inevitable. The essay situates the Philippines at the center of cross‑strait crisis planning, highlighting how airspace, waters, bases, and civilian infrastructure would be directly implicated in any conflict. It critiques the prevailing “strategic silence” in Philippine discourse, showing how drift has historically led to abdication of agency in the South China Sea, and warns that Taiwan presents an even sharper test of sovereignty. By contrasting U.S. “strategic ambiguity” with the need for Philippine “strategic clarity,” the paper frames autonomy as essential: defining interests, thresholds for alliance commitments, capacity‑building priorities, and cost‑benefit assessments before crisis compresses decision time. Through scenario analysis, it demonstrates how ambiguity collapses under duress, and how clarity—if chosen in advance—can expand options. The essay completes a triptych on Philippine strategic culture, diagnosing drift, prescribing autonomy, and applying lessons to Taiwan as the ultimate test of agency in regional order.
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