Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors of bluetongue virus (BTV), and epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV). Understanding the environmental drivers of vector populations is essential for anticipating the emergence of these orbiviruses, which pose significant economic and health challenges to domestic ruminant sectors. We developed a Bayesian modeling framework to analyze 24 years (2001–2024) of Culicoides surveillance in France, integrating daily entomological, climatic and environmental data. Species-specific and multi-species models identified temperature as the predominant driver of vector abundance, with rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation, photoperiod, and wind showing species-dependent effects. Simulations revealed a recent increase in annual Culicoides abundances, an earlier seasonal onset of activity by up to six weeks, and the emergence of regions with near-year-round vector presence. Years of high vector abundance coincided with reported outbreaks of BTV, EHDV and Schmallenberg virus, and modeled R₀ values indicated increased transmission risk in recent years. Overall, this work demonstrates the value of integrating high-resolution entomological and environmental data to anticipate fine-scale variations in vector activity and disease risk. Our framework provides a foundation for operational forecasting and targeted interventions to mitigate the impact of Culicoides-borne viruses on livestock health under climate change.