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Electric Power Systems Research
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6...
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Conditional Normalizing Flows for Probabilistic Harmonic Power Flow and Compliance Risk

Authors: Enis Yazici;

Conditional Normalizing Flows for Probabilistic Harmonic Power Flow and Compliance Risk

Abstract

PHPF in distribution networks with high penetration of photovoltaic generation and electric vehicle charging requires extensive MC simulation, particularly when compliance must be evaluated under specific conditions. Conventional MC analysis provides marginal output distributions, but these cannot be directly conditioned on individual operating regimes.We develop a CNF surrogate that learns full conditional distribution of per-bus harmonic voltages and total harmonic distortion indices given uncertain system states. This enables direct estimation of scenario-dependent compliance risk without rerunning simulations. The model is trained on 500,000 Monte Carlo harmonic simulations of the IEEE 33-bus distribution feeder using a conditional neural spline flow architecture.The surrogate achieves mean quantile errors of 0.005\% and 0.011\% at the 95th and 99th percentiles, respectively, a mean conditional exceedance error of 0.0009, and a probability integral transform deviation of 0.047, indicating accurate tail calibration. Results reveal strong regime dependence that is not visible in marginal statistics: at the most critical bus, the probability of exceeding the IEEE 519 limit of 8\% ranges from 0.095 under low-load conditions to 0.909 under high-load conditions, whereas the marginal estimate is 0.509. Once trained, the surrogate evaluates such conditional risk metrics in milliseconds through sampling, supporting rapid multi-scenario harmonic compliance analysis.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
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