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International Economic Review
Article . 2008 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2004 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes

Authors: Frankel, David M.;

Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes

Abstract

A theory is developed that explains how stocks can crash without fundamental news and why crashes are more common than frenzies. A crash occurs via the interaction of rational and naive investors. Naive traders believe that prices follow a random walk with serially correlated volatility. Their expectations of future volatility are formed adaptively. When the market crashes, naive traders sell stock in response to the apparent increase in volatility. Since rational traders are risk averse as well, a lower price is needed to clear the market: The crash is a self‐fulfilling prophecy. Frenzies cannot occur in this model.

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Keywords

Stock market crashes; adaptive expectations; volatility feedback; excess volatility, jel: jel:D84, jel: jel:G01, jel: jel:G10, jel: jel:D03

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    13
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
13
Top 10%
Average
Average
bronze