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Transformer Uncertainty and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Authors: Nima Taheri Hosseinkhani;

Transformer Uncertainty and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Abstract

We introduce W_Trans , a measure of model uncertainty extracted from the prediction interval width of a Feature Tokenizer Transformer trained on 35 economic-theme principal components derived from 212 anomaly signals. W Trans has zero unconditional return predictability (t ≈ 0.5) across all smoothing horizons and subperiods. However, the interaction of W Trans with the anomaly consensus signal µ generates Fama-MacBeth t-statistics exceeding 8 and a difference-indifferences portfolio alpha of +1.29% per month under Fama-French five-factor adjustment, with the sign-flip breakeven near the sample median of µ. The conditional signal survives microcap exclusion (t = 5.94), value weighting (t = 2.58), double-clustered standard errors (t = 6.18), a kitchensink specification with 35 theme controls (t = 5.74), and firm fixed-effect absorption (t = 2.37); a competing µ × σ interaction washes out completely (t =-0.19). The premium concentrates in low-attention stocks-low media coverage (t = 3.69) and low analyst following (t = 7.74)-and is absent among high-attention stocks (t < 1), consistent with a limits-to-arbitrage mechanism.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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