Concrete-filled steel tube (CFST) columns are increasingly utilized in high-rise construction, where steel beams are typically joined via fully bolted splice connections to eliminate on-site welding. While the concrete slab facilitates efficient composite action, the presence of bolt holes reduces the beam's effective cross-sectional area, potentially triggering premature connection failure during the stress redistribution associated with progressive collapse. Building upon previous investigations into damage mechanisms, this study establishes a comprehensive analytical framework by proposing two moment-rotation hinge models to characterize the flexural resistance of these connections. The mechanical response is idealized into four distinct physical stages—friction, elastic, elastic-plastic, and hardening—with analytical expressions derived to define the transition limit states for each. The proposed hinge models are validated against experimental data and high-fidelity finite element simulations of beam-column sub-assemblages, demonstrating their ability to capture complex load-redistribution effects. Furthermore, through an extensive parametric study, the research derives empirical formulations for bending moment and rotation coefficients, culminating in a practical, design-oriented moment hinge model. This analytical tool provides a computationally efficient and robust solution for progressive collapse assessment of composite frame structures, bridging the gap between detailed component analysis and large-scale structural robustness analysis.