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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2004 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
Article . 2005 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2004
Data sources: EconStor
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Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics

Authors: Yin-wong Cheung; Ulf G. Erlandsson;

Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics

Abstract

This article presents a systematic and extensive empirical study on the presence of Markov switching dynamics in three dollar-based exchange rates. A Monte Carlo approach is adopted to circumvent the statistical inference problem inherent to the test of regime-switching behavior. Two data frequencies, two sample periods, and various specifications are considered. Quarterly data yield inconclusive evidence; the test rejects neither random walk nor Markov switching. Monthly data, on the other hand, offer unambiguous evidence of the presence of Markov switching dynamics. The results suggest that data frequency, in addition to sample size, is crucial for determining the number of regimes.

Keywords

Markovscher Prozess, ddc:330, exchange rate dynamics, regime switching, Monte Carlo Test, sampling frequency, Frankreich, Italien, regime switching, Wechselkurs, Overshooting, exchange rate dynamics, sampling frequency, Kointegration, Grossbritannien, Monte Carlo Test, Exchange Rate Dynamics, Regime Switching, Monte Carlo Test, Sampling Frequency, Preisniveau, Deutschland, C22, F31, Schätzung

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    selected citations
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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    61
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
61
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
bronze