
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.6354499
This note assesses the digital economy issues likely to arise in the 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). While the agreement's digital trade chapter was once considered state-of-the-art, progress in developing the framework for international digital commerce and rapid technological change-particularly the emergence of generative and agentic AI-have pushed the trade policy frontier far beyond where it was when the current version was negotiated. Before meaningful modernization can occur, three foundational issues must be addressed. First, the cross-border flow of data-the foundational economic asset of the digital economy-remains invisible in trade and national accounts, distorting perceptions of trade balances and the distribution of gains from participation in the digital economy. Second, the digitalization of economic activity has blurred the boundary between commercial and security infrastructure, raising unresolved questions of digital sovereignty and vulnerability from interoperability. Third, the accelerating deployment of AI systems is generating governance challenges that are increasingly central to economic and national security policy. Without addressing these structural issues, any revision of the USMCA digital provisions risks being outdated upon adoption.
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