
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.6327699
Background: Three key vectors of tick-borne disease (TBD) in Mongolia (Dermacentor nuttalli, Ixodes persulcatus, and Hyalomma asiaticum), known to harbor and transmit Anaplasma spp., Borrelia spp., Coxiella burnetii, Ehrlichia muris, Francisella persica, Rickettsia spp., Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever virus (CCHFV), and Tick-Borne Encephalitis virus (TBEV). Tick distributions on the landscape are constrained by temperature, precipitation, humidity, and host availability. <div> <br> </div> <div> Methods: From 2019-2024, systematic tick collection via flagging and dragging was conducted across 21 aimags in Mongolia. A total of 25,400 ticks were collected and identified. Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) modeling was used to assess suitability (scale 0-1) of the Mongolian landscape as a function of environmental drivers, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, land cover, and soil composition, for each of the three tick species. </div> <div> <br> </div> <div> Findings: Annual mean temperature was identified as the driver with the highest relative importance for D. nuttalli and H. asiaticum, and soil organic carbon for I. persulcatus. Using a suitability cutoff of >0.5, the predicted suitable area for D. nuttalli spans 33.2% of the country, with higher suitability in northern latitudes, especially the northeast. </div> <div> <br> </div> <div> Interpretation: Predicted suitabilities show that D. nuttalli is more widespread than the distinct niches of I. persulcatus and H. asiaticum. Areas with overlap of D. nuttalli with both I. persulcatus and H. asiaticum pose a risk for co-circulation of tick-borne pathogens, especially if these ticks are competent vectors for the same pathogens. These results can inform targeted surveillance and public health interventions. </div>
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