
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.6288399
Information is what the user makes of it and different users will reach different probabilities from the same information. We consider how "naive" users, who overstate the firm's probability of success, inflate the asset price and harm both themselves and market efficiency by pricing "sophisticated" investors out of the market. Surprising results reveal how all investors benefit by "underbetting their beliefs" or betting as if they are more risk averse than they are. Drawing on models of underbetting developed by mathematicians, we explain how investors who accept that their probabilities are error prone react by investing conservatively, as if they discount indications that seem to warrant a larger "bet". While not raised in accounting theory, traditional accounting conservatism can induce underbetting with the same benefits that gamblers find, generally more so because the share price is lower in a more prudent or risk averse market.
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