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Underbetting and Accounting Conservatism

Authors: David Johnstone; Stephen H. Penman;

Underbetting and Accounting Conservatism

Abstract

Information is what the user makes of it and different users will reach different probabilities from the same information. We consider how "naive" users, who overstate the firm's probability of success, inflate the asset price and harm both themselves and market efficiency by pricing "sophisticated" investors out of the market. Surprising results reveal how all investors benefit by "underbetting their beliefs" or betting as if they are more risk averse than they are. Drawing on models of underbetting developed by mathematicians, we explain how investors who accept that their probabilities are error prone react by investing conservatively, as if they discount indications that seem to warrant a larger "bet". While not raised in accounting theory, traditional accounting conservatism can induce underbetting with the same benefits that gamblers find, generally more so because the share price is lower in a more prudent or risk averse market.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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