
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.6280878
A classic but fundamental issue in accounting research is which performance measure is better at predicting future cash flows. Using Japanese data, this study examines whether accounting earnings or cash flows are better performance measures to predict future operating cash flows and whether adding back depreciation and amortization to accounting earnings improves the predictability of future cash flows, as is widely believed in practice. As a result, I find that accounting earnings measures (especially operating and ordinary earnings) are superior to operating and free cash flows themselves in predicting future operating and free cash flows. I also find that adding back depreciation and amortization to earnings improves the predictability of future operating cash flows, whereas it does not improve future free cash flows. Although these results are mainly observed in the second half of the sample period of this study (2010-2017), they demonstrate the superiority of accounting earnings in predicting future cash flows over cash flows themselves in Japan.
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