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The Geometry of Monetary Circulation with Hidden Routing 

Authors: Konstantinos Beltsios;

The Geometry of Monetary Circulation with Hidden Routing 

Abstract

<div> We develop a structural theory of monetary circulation under partial observability. Money is modeled as a path-dependent semi-Markov process moving across an institutional network, where transfers are observed only at aggregated endpoints while part of the routing occurs through hidden or unrecorded channels. Rather than at- tempting to reconstruct unobserved flows, we characterize their observable imprint on the visible economy. We show that hidden circulation induces three robust ef- fects: (i) distortions of measured turnover and residence times, (ii) endogenous trapping and congestion not ex- plained by network topology alone, and (iii) systematic irreversibility that may remain invisible in observed flows. The key object is a phase field defined on visible links, inter- pretable as a directional shadow price of hidden circulation, orthogonal to incentive-based (potential) explanations. Irreversibility is formulated at the level of monetary paths via path-space relative entropy. We prove that entropy pro- duction in the observed economy is always a lower bound on true entropy production, with a nonnegative gap captur- ing hidden irreversibility. When the hidden phase contains a genuine cycle component and the economy uses that cy- cle, hidden entropy production is strictly positive even if observed circulation appears nearly reversible. We connect these structural results to macroeconomic out- comes by defining a price-free structural output proxy based on the interaction of monetary activation and directional circulation. Under stable institutional regimes, this proxy is shown to be affine-comparable to measured GDP growth. The framework provides a unified account of dark circulation, irreversibility, and macroeconomic inefficiency, without invoking equilibrium prices, representative agents, or welfare optimization. This paper completes a three-paper sequence by extending the framework to hid- den and partially observed circulation. </div>

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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Average
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