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WU Research
Research . 2025
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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6...
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2025
Data sources: EconStor
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Endogenous Depopulation and Economic Growth

Authors: Alberto Bucci; Klaus Prettner;

Endogenous Depopulation and Economic Growth

Abstract

Fertility rates have declined dramatically across almost all high-income countries over the past decades. In some countries, population growth is already negative and many more are projected to exhibit negative population growth in the coming decades. This has raised concerns about future economic prospects. Indeed, fully–endogenous and semi–endogenous growth models imply that a shrinking workforce would lead to declining income growth and, perhaps, even to stagnation. We include an endogenous quantity/quality trade-off between fertility and human capital accumulation in these models to assess the extent to which a declining number of people (i.e., workers) may be compensated by increasing education. We demonstrate that economic growth does not necessarily decline with population shrinkage: in many scenarios, human capital investment can offset demographic headwinds and sustain technological progress.

Country
Austria
Keywords

O33, ddc:330, Demographic Change, J11, J13, O41, I25, Research and Development, Endogenous Education, Department of Economics Working Paper Series, Endogenous Fertility, Economic Growth, Human Capital Accumulation, Fertility Decline

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green