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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6...
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
ETH Zürich Research Collection
Research . 2026
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Datacite
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2025
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Datacite
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Measuring Economic Outlook in the News

Authors: Beck, Elliot; Eckert, Franziska; Kühne, Linus; Liebert, Helge; Rosenblatt-Wisch, Rina;

Measuring Economic Outlook in the News

Abstract

<div> We develop a resource-efficient methodology for measuring economic outlook in news text that combines document embeddings with synthetic training data generated by large language models. Applied to 27 million news articles, the resulting indicator significantly improves GDP growth forecast accuracy and captures sentiment shifts weeks before official releases, proving particularly valuable during crises. The indicator outperforms both survey-based benchmarks and traditional dictionary methods and is interpretable, allowing identification of specific drivers of economic sentiment. Our approach addresses key institutional constraints: it performs sentiment classification locally, enabling analyses of proprietary news content without transmission to external services while requiring minimal computational resources compared to direct large language model classification. </div>

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Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, Economic outlook, Sentiment analysis, Big data, General Economics (econ.GN), Economics, Natural language processing, Large language models, General Economics, Neural networks, Forecasting

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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