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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Economics Lettersarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Economics Letters
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6...
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Accounting for Structural Breaks in the Hamilton Filter

Authors: Luiggi Donayre; Eiji Goto;

Accounting for Structural Breaks in the Hamilton Filter

Abstract

This paper reveals that the regression-based trend-cycle decomposition of Hamilton (2018) introduces spurious cyclical dynamics when time series undergo structural breaks. Because the filter relies on an <i>h</i>-step ahead projection, trend adjustment mechanically lags behind regime shifts, inducing bias in the cyclical component. We propose a parsimonious modification using a dummy-variable structure that allows the regression intercept and autoregressive components to adjust to identified breaks. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that this approach substantially reduces Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) across a wide class of data-generating processes. These gains are robust to variations in sample size, break timing, location and number, and signal-to-noise ratios, even when break dates are endogenously estimated. An empirical application to the Swiss franc/euro exchange rate demonstrates that our modification avoids the spurious cyclical spikes generated by standard filters during major policy shifts, ensuring a more reliable decomposition for macroeconomic inference.

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citations
The total number of citations received by all articles of the researcher of interest.
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Top 10%
Average
Average
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