
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.6234458
<p>This paper examines exchange rate dynamics in the early 2000s through the lens of hysteresis, arguing that structural imbalances, investor sentiment, and reserve diversification can create persistent currency movements even when short-term macroeconomic indicators improve. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar against major currencies—particularly the euro and the pound sterling—is analyzed in the context of widening trade deficits, interest rate differentials, and shifting global confidence in dollar-denominated assets.</p> <p>The study highlights the renewed role of gold as a store of value during periods of currency volatility and discusses the strategic considerations influencing currency blocs, including the potential expansion of the euro and its implications for global monetary leadership. The concept of hysteresis is applied to explain why exchange rate adjustments may exhibit path dependence and prolonged deviations from equilibrium.</p> <p>The paper further explores the possibility of a gradual transition toward regional currency consolidation and, in the long term, the emergence of a more unified international monetary structure. By linking macroeconomic fundamentals with behavioral and structural factors, the study contributes to understanding persistent exchange-rate trends and evolving reserve management practices among central banks.</p>
Article on Euro, Euro, Vehicle Currency, jel: jel:E
Article on Euro, Euro, Vehicle Currency, jel: jel:E
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