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Dynamic of the Index of Prices to the Consumer Price Index (CPI): Forecasts and Challenges in a Volatile Economic Environment

Authors: Alex Calderón;

Dynamic of the Index of Prices to the Consumer Price Index (CPI): Forecasts and Challenges in a Volatile Economic Environment

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an essential macroeconomic indicator for economic policy. In the context of global economic volatility, this study uses an ARIMA(1,2,0) model to analyze the historical dynamics of the CPI and generate accurate forecasts. The data used cover the period 2000-2024, adjusted after confirming a postdollarization structural break. The results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirmed that the transformed series with a second-order differencing (d=2) is stationary. The selected ARIMA model, based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), demonstrated be robust, with waste that They comply the properties of noise The model was white according to the Ljung-Box and normality tests. Although the individual coefficients were not statistically significant, the model exhibited strong predictive power, underscoring its usefulness for economic planning and informed decision-making in volatile environments.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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