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Macroeconomic Dynamics
Article . 2006 . Peer-reviewed
License: Cambridge Core User Agreement
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2004 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

Authors: Heijdra, B.J.; Ligthart, J.E.;

The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

Abstract

The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes. It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both per capita savings and per capita consumption increase in the new steady state. A drop in the birth rate, although keeping the death rate constant, reduces per capita savings, but increases per capita consumption if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the intertemporal labor supply effect. If the generational turnover effect is sufficiently strong, however, a decline in the birth rate may, contrary to standard results, give rise to an increase in per capita savings. Finally, a fertility rate reduction that leaves unaffected the rate of generational turnover is shown to have effects qualitatively similar to those of a fall in public consumption. Both per capita savings and per capita output decline, but per capita private consumption rises.

Country
Netherlands
Related Organizations
Keywords

fertility, fertility rate, fertility;labour supply;transition economy, transition effects, INTERGENERATIONAL DISTRIBUTION, SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth, intertemporal labor supply, DEBT, demographic shocks, MODEL, transition economy, Blanchard model, TAX POLICY, labour supply, fertility; labour supply; transition economy, overlapping generations, jel: jel:E63, jel: jel:E12, jel: jel:L16

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
25
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
bronze