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Inferring Analysts' Information about Changes in Earnings Components*

Authors: David A. Guenther; Philip B. Shane; David P. Weber;

Inferring Analysts' Information about Changes in Earnings Components*

Abstract

This paper develops a technique to infer the accuracy of analysts' forecasts of different components of earnings when databases contain forecasts of only bottom line (or limited component) earnings forecasts. We focus our analysis on three components - sales, operating profit percentage, and effective tax rates - and find that larger changes in all three components are associated with larger contemporaneous forecast errors, but that the change in operating profit percentage appears to be the most difficult to forecast. This difficulty in forecasting changes in the operating profit percentage appears to be concentrated in those observations in which net income decreases from the prior year.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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