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Scottish Journal of Political Economy
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2025
Data sources: EconStor
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A Simple Model of Geopolitical Risk and Sanctions

Authors: Lewis, Vivien; Puangjit, Sirikorn;

A Simple Model of Geopolitical Risk and Sanctions

Abstract

ABSTRACT Geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks that trigger the imposition of sanctions tend to lower output and raise inflation in the sanctioned country. We develop a three‐equation small open economy New Keynesian model where GPR shocks are modeled as negative productivity shocks and sanctions manifest as import tariffs in response to GPR increases. We calibrate the GPR process, sanction rule, and interest rate rule to match the observed dynamics of the GPR index, output, inflation, and the policy rate in Russian data. The sanction response to GPR allows the resulting model to capture the empirical impulse responses well. Additionally, we find that Russia's monetary policy rule is more accommodative than prescribed by the standard Taylor rule. Although this may reflect policy preferences, recent theoretical results indicate that such a policy stance may be optimal when sanctions act as cost‐push shocks that shift the Phillips Curve.

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Keywords

geopolitical risk, ddc:330, New Keynesian model, monetary policy, sanctions, E58, F51, E31, E32, F42

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average