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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2004 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2003 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Option Implied and Realized Measures of Variance

Authors: Damien Lynch; Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou;

Option Implied and Realized Measures of Variance

Abstract

This paper analyses the differences between forward (risk-neutral expectation) and realized variance. Four different assets are examined: S&P 500, FTSE 100, eurodollar and short sterling futures. Model-free measures of risk-neutral forward variance are estimated using the full cross section of option prices of a given maturity. Intra-day futures data are used in the estimation of realized variance. A mean squared error criterion is devised to inform the choice of optimal intra-day frequency. Market microstructure issues are considered for both equity and interest rate futures markets. The bias and efficiency of forward variance as a predictor of realized variance is reexamined.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
7
Average
Average
Average
bronze