Abstract This paper assesses the economic consequences of the 2025 U.S. trade policy on global agricultural markets, with a focus on the “reciprocal tariffs” initiated by the United States. By using a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, we evaluate the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of alternative tariff scenarios, with a particular focus on the U.S. agricultural sector. Our results indicate that the imposition of uniform tariffs on U.S. imports from the rest of the world generates substantial welfare losses for the U.S. (0.63%) and China (1.28%), with corresponding GDP declines of 0.82 and 0.39%, respectively. Tariffs result in significant contractions in global agricultural trade and higher consumer prices for key agri-food products in the US, including vegetables (6.05%), crops (7.48%), and cattle (4.13%). China’s oilseed imports from the U.S. decrease by 38.32%, while imports from Canada and Brazil increase by 17.48 and 3.92%, respectively, if U.S.–China tariffs are enacted. U.S. imports of high-value vegetables and fruits from Canada and Mexico decline sharply, partially offset by increased imports from Australia and Argentina if new tariffs are enacted in North America. These findings show the complex sectoral adjustments and market realignments driven by escalating trade tensions.