
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.5660580
handle: 10419/339428
Most transition-finance assets (green bonds, EU emission allowances, clean-energy equities) have only a few years of daily data and virtually no intraday history, rendering standard spillover tools either infeasible (high-dimensional MGARCH) or inapplicable (realized-variance VARs). We develop an Adaptive-Lasso MGARCH (AL-MGARCH) estimator that applies an L1 penalty with adaptive weights to shrink negligible cross-effects to zero, reducing the active parameter set from O(N2 ) to O(N) while retaining oracle-selection properties. We also generalise Diebold-Yilmaz-style connectedness to daily returns, enabling single-step monitoring of transition-risk networks when intraday data are unavailable. Using eight daily series (2018-2025), we document a bond-centred volatility regime before 2022 and a natural-gas- and coal-centred regime after the Russia-Ukraine shock, reconciling mixed evidence on whether green assets hedge or amplify systemic risk.
Q40, adaptive Lasso, Q54, volatility spillovers, ddc:330, transition finance, G15, green bonds, clean-energy equities, carbon allowances, C58, MGARCH
Q40, adaptive Lasso, Q54, volatility spillovers, ddc:330, transition finance, G15, green bonds, clean-energy equities, carbon allowances, C58, MGARCH
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