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The Aggregate Behaviour of Individual Investors

Authors: Andrew Jackson;

The Aggregate Behaviour of Individual Investors

Abstract

Behavioural models generally require that the investment decisions of irrational investors aggregate in a systematic way. Using a unique Australian dataset of individual investor trades I investigate the plausibility of this assumption. I find that aggregate individual investor trades do indeed exhibit strong systematic patterns, including negative feedback trading and substantial persistence. In addition the weekly cross-sectional net trades of a large number of independent retail brokerage firms are contemporaneously correlated to a remarkable extent. Thus the aggregation assumption appears plausible. However I do not find that the net trades of retail investors consistently predict future returns in a negative fashion. In fact over the period 1991-2002, the net trades of full-service brokerage clients actually positively forecast future short-term market and cross-sectional returns. While small investors do act in a highly systematic fashion, their actions may not, at least in the short run, be classed as irrational.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
59
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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