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Infectious Disease Modelling
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Crossref
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PubMed Central
Article . 2025
License: CC BY NC ND
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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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Warming temperatures reduce lifespan and vectorial capacity of Anopheles mosquitoes in Ghana

Authors: Edmund I. Yamba; Kingsley Badu; Thomas A. Kyeimiah; Nathaniel O. Abrokwah; Stephen Asare; Mary J. Adjei; Joyce Ama Johnson; +1 Authors

Warming temperatures reduce lifespan and vectorial capacity of Anopheles mosquitoes in Ghana

Abstract

Climate change and variability are altering the ecology of malaria vectors, with implications for disease transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we analysed long-term historical temperature, rainfall and relative humidity data across Ghana's climatic zones to evaluate their trends. We then incorporated these data into simple climate-driven biological models to assess how they impacted Anopheles mosquito lifespan, their Vectorial Capacity and Extrinsic Incubation Period of malaria parasites. This approach allowed us to assess the potential impacts of climate change on malaria transmission dynamics in the country. The analysis revealed, on the long-term, significant temperature warming (over 1.5°C), marked decline in relative humidity, and no clear trends in rainfall across all climatic zones. Similarly, Anopheles mosquito lifespan (with seasonal variations of 5-11 days in the north and 9-14 days in the south) showed long-term decline while Extrinsic Incubation Period (with seasonal average range of 6-11 days in the north and up to 13 days in the south) showed shortened development time. Even though Vectorial Capacity showed no clear long-term trends, its values were generally below 10, indicating low-to-moderate malaria transmission potential nationwide. Although regional and local microclimatic variations may continue to support localized malaria transmission risk, the long-term rise in temperatures and decline in humidity are likely reducing mosquito longevity and malaria transmission potential in Ghana. These findings underscore the importance of climate-informed and region-specific strategies in the National Malaria Elimination Program to improve targeted interventions and optimize vector control efforts.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold