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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Research . 2024
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Research . 2024
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Exchange Rate Narratives

Authors: Cormun, Vito; Ristolainen, Kim;

Exchange Rate Narratives

Abstract

Leveraging Wall Street Journal news, recent developments in textual analysis, and generative AI, we estimate a narrative decomposition of the dollar exchange rate. Our findings shed light on the connection between economic fundamentals and the exchange rate, as well as on its absence. From the late 1970s onwards, we identify six distinct narratives that explain changes in the exchange rate, each largely non-overlapping. U.S. fiscal and monetary policies play a significant role in the early part of the sample, while financial market news becomes more dominant in the second half. Notably, news on technological change predicts the exchange rate throughout the entire sample period. Finally, using text-augmented regressions, we find evidence that media coverage explains the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic indicators.

Keywords

macroeconomic news, F3, ddc:330, big data, textual analysis, Exchange rates, scapegoat, narrative retrieval, C3, Wall Street Journal, C5

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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