
<span>We provide evidence that dividend yield better predicts returns among dividend payers than alternative pricing factors, contradicting prior research. First, we calculate dividend yield using only the most recent declaration date, substantially increasing return predictability relative to the trailing yield. Second, asset pricing strategies tend to earn low returns within the mature, profitable firms that pay dividends. Cross-sectional tests suggest dividend yield predicts returns because investors value receiving the dividend, rather than it providing information about future earnings. We conclude that dividend yield is a useful valuation metric for mature and easier-to-value firms that tend to pay dividends.</span>
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