
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.515949
Black-Scholes is useful for valuing real options, but not in the way often used for new ventures. The use rests on an apparent analogy between real and stock options. Although conceptually helpful, a direct analogy is flawed for most real ventures. The most critical flaw is the assumption that the variance in new venture outcomes is a continuous time function and must be derived from a so-called tracking stock. The analogy also requires that the present value of venture cash flows be the equivalent of a current stock price in the Black-Scholes equation. Determining this certainty equivalent requires subjective inputs, for which guidance is usually lacking. This paper reviews the analogy problems and ways to resolve them for new venture situations, including the problem of estimating risk discounts for new ventures.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 0 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
