
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.5153479 , 10.2139/ssrn.4731069 , 10.3386/w32160 , 10.2139/ssrn.4503275 , 10.5167/uzh-235041
handle: 10419/314718
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.5153479 , 10.2139/ssrn.4731069 , 10.3386/w32160 , 10.2139/ssrn.4503275 , 10.5167/uzh-235041
handle: 10419/314718
We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations. German households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today. Our evidence points towards a transmission of inflation experiences from parents to children and through local institutions. Differential historical inflation also modulates the updating of expectations to current inflation, the response to unconventional fiscal policies, and financial decisions. We obtain similar results in a test with Polish households residing in formerly German areas. Overall, our findings are consistent with inflationary shocks having a long-lasting impact on attitudes towards inflation.
inflation expectations, ddc:330, 10003 Department of Finance, N14, 330 Economics, E71, German hyperinflation, D14, inflation, long-term persistence, E31, G41
inflation expectations, ddc:330, 10003 Department of Finance, N14, 330 Economics, E71, German hyperinflation, D14, inflation, long-term persistence, E31, G41
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