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A Critical Examination of the "China Collapse" Narrative

Authors: Liang, Yan;

A Critical Examination of the "China Collapse" Narrative

Abstract

Western media and academia have heralded the China collapse narrative. This paper provides a critical and balanced examination of the four challenges facing the Chinese economy - namely, deflation, debt, demographics, and de-coupling/de-risking. It argues that while deflationary pressure is present, consumer demand has been improving as the property market stabilized and policies to bolster domestic demand were and continue to be effective in reflating the economy. China's debt is predominantly internal and semi-public; the central government could leverage up to resolve the local government debt conundrum. A talent dividend and employment optimization could offset the dissipating population dividend; and finally, China's high-quality opening, its participation in the multilateral system and its meaningful engagement with the Global South help counteract the decoupling/de-risking strategies of the US. In sum, while challenges abound, China's sound economic foundations and sensible developmental and macroeconomic policies help to propel economic growth, structural transformation, and green transition.

Related Organizations
Keywords

O20, O53, Public Debt, China, Financial Structure, ddc:330, E12, Economic Recovery, Government Debt, Economic Collapse, Job guarantee

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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