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Forced Displacement, the Perpetuation of Autocratic Leadership, and Development in Origin Countries

Authors: Cabra-Ruiz, Nicolás; Rozo Villarraga, Sandra V.; Sviatschi, María Micaela;

Forced Displacement, the Perpetuation of Autocratic Leadership, and Development in Origin Countries

Abstract

How does forced displacement shape development in origin countries? We examine the case of Venezuela, where nearly eight million people have been forcibly displaced. To do this, we compare municipalities with varying shares of foreign-born populations before and after international oil price shocks accelerated forced displacement between 2014 and 2019. Our findings show that municipalities with larger foreign-born populations in 1990, which also exhibited greater out-migration from Venezuela after 2014, experienced lower economic development and higher inequality. We highlight a new mechanism through which forced displacement facilitates the perpetuation of autocratic rule and hinders development: by weakening political opposition and enabling the growth of organized crime and illicit income sources. Using novel election data, we find that areas affected by mass forced displacement experienced lower voter turnout and opposition support, limiting political and social reforms. These areas also witnessed growth in organized crime and foreign non-state drug and human trafficking, which diminished incentives for economic change.

Country
United States
Related Organizations
Keywords

O54, 330, O12, ddc:330, forced displacement, electoral outcomes, ECONOMIC GROWTH, Venezuela, economic growth, O15, ELECTORAL OUTCOMES, VENEZUELA, FORCED DISPLACEMENT

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green