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Computing the Extinction Path for Epidemic Models

Computing the extinction path for epidemic models
Authors: Clancy, Damian; Stewart, John J. H.;

Computing the Extinction Path for Epidemic Models

Abstract

In infectious disease modelling, the expected time from endemicity to extinction (of infection) may be analysed via WKB approximation, a method with origins in mathematical physics. The method is very general, but its uptake to date may have been limited by the practical difficulties of implementation. It is necessary to compute a trajectory of a (high dimensional) dynamical system, the `extinction path', and this trajectory is maximally sensitive to small perturbations, making numerical computation challenging. Our objective here is to make this methodology more accessible by presenting four computational algorithms, with associated Matlab code, together with discussion of various ways in which the algorithms may be tuned to achieve satisfactory convergence. We illustrate our methods using three standard infectious disease models. For each such model, we demonstrate that our algorithms are able to improve upon previously available results.

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Keywords

metastability, Applications of boundary value problems involving ordinary differential equations, heteroclinic orbits, persistence time, Epidemiology, Finite element, Rayleigh-Ritz, Galerkin and collocation methods for ordinary differential equations, boundary value problems, FOS: Mathematics, Homoclinic and heteroclinic orbits for dynamical systems, Dynamical Systems (math.DS), Mathematics - Dynamical Systems

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid