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Life insurers massively sell savings policies that guarantee minimum withdrawal payouts. When market interest rates increase, these guarantees become in-the-money. Hence, an increase in interest rates leads to more withdrawals of life insurance policies. We document this effect by exploiting partly hand-collected insurer-level data covering more than two decades. A one-standard deviation increase in interest rates relates to an increase in withdrawal rates by roughly 0.35 standard deviations. As a result, the duration of life insurance policies decreases with higher interest rates. A reduction in duration implies that life insurers may be forced to sell assets when interest rates rise. We build a granular model of life insurers' cash flows to estimate the resulting price impact and fire sale costs. Under plausible assumptions, the model predicts that forced sales reduce asset prices by up to 1% and reduce insurers' equity capital by up to 15bps. Forced sales are primarily driven by insurers' long-dated assets investments, which slow down an increase in policy returns when interest rates rise.
G28, Surrender Options, Systemic Risk, Liquidity Risk, 330, ddc:330, Interest Rates, E44, G32, G22, Life Insurance, Fire Sales, E52, G52
G28, Surrender Options, Systemic Risk, Liquidity Risk, 330, ddc:330, Interest Rates, E44, G32, G22, Life Insurance, Fire Sales, E52, G52
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 4 | |
popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |