Forecasting for Monetary Policy

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Preprint 01 Jan 2025Embargo end date: 01 Jan 2025 United Kingdom Publisher:Elsevier BVJournal:International Journal of Forecasting, volume 42, pages 22-33 (issn: 0169-2070,

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Authors: Coroneo, Laura;

doi: 10.2139/ssrn.5095513 , 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.05.003 , 10.48550/arxiv.2501.07386

arXiv: 2501.07386

Forecasting for Monetary Policy

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Abstract

This paper discusses three key themes in forecasting for monetary policy highlighted in the Bernanke (2024) review: the challenges in economic forecasting, the conditional nature of central bank forecasts, and the importance of forecast evaluation. In addition, a formal evaluation of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts indicates that, despite the large forecast errors in recent years, they were still accurate relative to common benchmarks.

32 pages, 5 figures, 1 table

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United Kingdom

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Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, Econometrics (econ.EM), Econometrics

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