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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Economicaarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Economica
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Babies and the Macroeconomy

Authors: Claudia Goldin;

Babies and the Macroeconomy

Abstract

AbstractFertility levels have decreased greatly in virtually every nation, but the timing of the decline has differed even among developed countries. In Europe, Asia and North America, total fertility rates (TFRs) of some nations dipped below the magic replacement figure of 2.1 as early as the 1970s. But in other nations, fertility rates remained substantial until the 1990s, plummeting subsequently. This paper addresses why some countries in Europe and Asia with moderate fertility levels in the 1980s have become the ‘lowest low’ nations today (TFRs less than 1.3), whereas those that decreased earlier have not. Also addressed is why the crossover point for the two groups of nations was around the 1980s and 1990s. An important factor that distinguishes the two groups is their economic growth in the decades after the Second World War, especially the 1960s and 1970s. Countries with ‘lowest low’ fertility rates today experienced rapid growth in GDP per capita after a long period of stagnation or decline. They were catapulted into modernity, but the beliefs, values and traditions of their citizens changed more slowly. Thus swift economic change may lead to both generational and gendered conflicts that result in a rapid decrease in TFR.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
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