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https://doi.org/10.2...arrow_drop_down
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9...
Book . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2024
Data sources: EconStor
Open Knowledge Repository
Research . 2024
License: CC BY
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Rate Cycles

Authors: Forbes, Kristin; Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan;
Abstract

We analyse cycles in policy interest rates in 24 advanced economies over 1970-2024, combining a new application of business cycle methodology with rich time-series decompositions of the shocks driving rate movements. "Rate cycles" have gradually evolved over time, with less frequent cyclical turning points, more moderate tightening phases, and a larger role for global shocks. Against this backdrop, the 2020-24 rate cycle has been unprecedented in many dimensions: it features the fastest pivot from active easing to a tightening phase, followed by the most globally synchronized tightening, and an unusually long period of holding rates constant. It also exhibits the largest role for global shocks- with global demand shocks still dominant, but an increased role for global supply shocks in explaining interest rate movements. Inflation and the growth in output and employment have, on average, largely returned to historical norms for this stage in a tightening phase. Any recalibration of interest rates going forward should be gradual, however, taking into account the interactions between increasingly important global factors and domestic circumstances, combined with uncertainty as to whether rate cycles have reverted to pre-2008 patterns.

Countries
United States, Germany
Keywords

supply shocks, Credit, 330, Q43, SUPPLY SHOCKS, BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS, E31 - Price Level, Deflation, E32 - Business Fluctuations, Federal Reserve, Monetary policy, Oil prices, INFLATION, SDG 8, E51 - Money Supply, demand shocks, E52, E31, DECENT WORK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH, E32, ECB, FEDERAL RESERVE, ddc:330, MONETARY POLICY, Money Multipliers, Inflation, OIL PRICES, Cycles, Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy, DEMAND SCHOCKS

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green