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Daily oil price shocks and their uncertainties

Authors: Wang, Shu;

Daily oil price shocks and their uncertainties

Abstract

This paper presents a high-frequency structural VAR framework for identifying oil price shocks and examining their uncertainty transmission in the U.S. macroeconomy and financial markets. Leveraging the stylized features of financial data - specifically, volatility clustering effectively captured by a GARCH model - this approach achieves global identification of shocks while allowing for volatility spillovers across them. Findings reveal that increased variance in aggregate demand shocks increases the oil-equity price covariance, while precautionary demand shocks, triggering heightened investor risk aversion, significantly diminish this covariance. A real-time forecast error variance decomposition further highlights that oil supply uncertainty was the primary source of oil price forecast uncertainty from late March to early May 2020, yet it contributed minimally during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Related Organizations
Keywords

GARCH, Q43, impulse response functions, ddc:330, C58, structural VAR, forecast error variance decomposition, Oil price, uncertainty, C32, Q47

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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