
arXiv: 2410.21858
We develop a nonparametric, kernel-based joint estimator for conditional mean and covariance matrices in large and unbalanced panels. The estimator is supported by rigorous consistency results and finite-sample guarantees, ensuring its reliability for empirical applications. We apply it to an extensive panel of monthly US stock excess returns from 1962 to 2021, using macroeconomic and firm-specific covariates as conditioning variables. The estimator effectively captures time-varying cross-sectional dependencies, demonstrating robust statistical and economic performance. We find that idiosyncratic risk explains, on average, more than 75% of the cross-sectional variance.
Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Economics and business, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Statistics - Machine Learning, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Machine Learning (stat.ML), (primary) 62G05 (secondary) 62G20, 46E40, 46E22, Statistics - Methodology, Machine Learning (cs.LG)
Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Economics and business, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Statistics - Machine Learning, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Machine Learning (stat.ML), (primary) 62G05 (secondary) 62G20, 46E40, 46E22, Statistics - Methodology, Machine Learning (cs.LG)
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