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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2024
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
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DBLP
Preprint . 2024
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Joint Estimation of Conditional Mean and Covariance for Unbalanced Panels

Authors: Damir Filipovic; Paul Schneider;

Joint Estimation of Conditional Mean and Covariance for Unbalanced Panels

Abstract

We develop a nonparametric, kernel-based joint estimator for conditional mean and covariance matrices in large and unbalanced panels. The estimator is supported by rigorous consistency results and finite-sample guarantees, ensuring its reliability for empirical applications. We apply it to an extensive panel of monthly US stock excess returns from 1962 to 2021, using macroeconomic and firm-specific covariates as conditioning variables. The estimator effectively captures time-varying cross-sectional dependencies, demonstrating robust statistical and economic performance. We find that idiosyncratic risk explains, on average, more than 75% of the cross-sectional variance.

Keywords

Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Economics and business, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Statistics - Machine Learning, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Machine Learning (stat.ML), (primary) 62G05 (secondary) 62G20, 46E40, 46E22, Statistics - Methodology, Machine Learning (cs.LG)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green