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The Review of Economic Studies
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2024
Data sources: EconStor
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Narratives about the Macroeconomy

Authors: Andre, Peter; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes;

Narratives about the Macroeconomy

Abstract

Abstract We study narratives about the macroeconomy—the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena—in the context of a historic surge in inflation. In our empirical analysis, we field surveys with more than 10,000 US households and 100 academic experts, measure economic narratives in open-ended questions, and represent them as Directed Acyclic Graphs. Households’ narratives are strongly heterogeneous, coarser than experts’ narratives, focus more on the supply than the demand side, and often feature politically charged explanations. Moreover, narratives shape how households form inflation expectations and interpret new information, which we demonstrate in a series of experiments. Informed by these findings, our theoretical analysis incorporates narratives into an otherwise conventional New Keynesian model and demonstrates their importance for aggregate outcomes through their effect on agents’ expectations.

Country
Germany
Keywords

Expectation Formation, D83, E71, 330, D84, ddc:330, Narratives, Causal Reasoning, E52, Inflation, 300, E31

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    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green