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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2024
Data sources: EconStor
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Real-time Nowcasting Growth-at-Risk using the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Authors: Schick, Manuel;

Real-time Nowcasting Growth-at-Risk using the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Abstract

This paper investigates nowcasting Growth-at-Risk (GaR) using consensus forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) in the US. Incorporating SPF consensus forecasts into the conditional mean of an AR-GARCH type model significantly enhances nowcasting accuracy for GaR and the conditional density of GDP growth. While there is strong time variation in both the lower and upper quantiles of the GDP growth distribution, integrating skewness and fat tails into the model does not improve forecasting accuracy. By accounting for changes in the conditional mean of the GDP growth distribution over time, these findings highlight the value of SPF consensus projections for GaR nowcasting.

Country
Germany
Related Organizations
Keywords

Growth-at-Risk, GARCH, Survey of Professional Forecasters, ddc-330, C52, ddc:330, C53, C22, 330 Economics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green