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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Economics & Human Bi...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Economics & Human Biology
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Economic Costs of Distancing Policy Interventions

Authors: Olivér Miklós Rácz;

Economic Costs of Distancing Policy Interventions

Abstract

Outbreaks of new viruses are increasingly likely in the warming global climate. In the absence of medical treatments, distancing policy interventions (DPIs) are expected to remain the primary containment strategy. While effective in limiting social interactions and curbing transmission, DPIs also disrupt economic activity. This paper estimates the short-run economic effects of DPIs using monthly macroeconomic indicators from 44 countries during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The main contribution of the paper is that its estimates account for not only the direct (DPI-compliant) but also the indirect (DPI-triggered voluntary) distancing effects of DPI-s, providing greater policy-relevance than earlier estimates neglecting indirect effects. DPI effects are identified in a two-stage empirical design. The first stage leverages a sharp decline in weekly social mobility following initial DPIs to isolate policy-driven behavior. The second stage carries these effects over to monthly indicators (industrial and manufacturing production, construction output, retail trade, inflation, and unemployment) using a difference-in-differences framework. I find substantial output losses attributable to DPIs, while voluntary distancing also contributed, but to a lesser extent. No significant inflationary or unemployment effects are detected. These findings suggest that output losses should be the primary economic concern when implementing distancing interventions in future pandemics.

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Keywords

SARS-CoV-2, Health Policy, Physical Distancing, Humans, COVID-19, Pandemics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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