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Machine Learning Mutual Fund Flows

Authors: Fausch, Jürg; Frigg, Moreno; Ruenzi, Stefan; Weigert, Florian;

Machine Learning Mutual Fund Flows

Abstract

We present improved out-of-sample predictability of future fund flows using state-of-the-art machine learning methods. Nonlinear machine learning models significantly outperform linear models in terms of out-of-sample R-squared. Using interpretable ML methods, we identify past flows and the Morningstar rating as the most important predictors for net- flows, while other past performance variables are of minor importance. We find that the importance of Morningstar ratings and expenses has increased over time. In addition, the interaction effect of past flows with the Morningstar rating has a substantial impact on future flows. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that machine learning-based fund flow predictions can be used to ex-ante differentiate between high and low-performing mutual funds. Finally, funds whose flow predictions can be improved the most using ML reveal the worst performance, consistent with the idea that liquidity management is particularly challenging for these funds.

Keywords

G17, ddc:330, fund flow prediction, interpretable machine learning, C52, big data, Machine learning, G10, G11, G12, G23, C53, C55, C45

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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