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https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.i...
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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4...
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The Problem of Dependency

Authors: Toby Pilditch; Ulrike Hahn; David Lagnado;

The Problem of Dependency

Abstract

It is a wide-spread assumption that multiple pieces of evidence, whether they involve measurements or testimony, provide stronger evidential support when they are independent than when they are not. The standard view is that non-independence creates redundancy and leads to over-confidence (see e.g., Soll, 1999; Nisbett & Ross, 1980). In keeping with this, fields as diverse as law, statistics, and philosophy have sought to understand the implications of non-independence and set out rules for dealing with it. In this paper, we set out how the challenges posed by non-independence are both far more wide-spread and more challenging than typically assumed. Specifically, we review how Bayesian probabilistic analysis reveals “simple” inference cases that conflict with wide-spread assumptions about the value of independence. These suggest that mere intuition is not a reliable guide in this arena. However, we then show that the same framework cannot (in its current form) be scaled to common real-world situations even in principle. We conclude with a discussion of the more modest, partial, solutions that are currently available and outline possible future directions.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

Cognitive Psychology, Reasoning, Social and Behavioral Sciences

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    popularity
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid
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